This is a follow-up to my November, “Dude, where’s my Euro?” call. When investing, I feel it is important to take a multi-factor approach to making buy and sell decisions. While I generate most of my investment ideas through a fundamental lens, I always verify my hypothesis with price. Price to me is the ultimate judge and jury, so it is a critical component to my process.

I’ve done my kindergartner mark-up on this chart - with blue for the long-term trend and red for the medium-term trend. Basically, from my long-term opinion, the Euro has been biding time for several years now, but remains in a over-all downward trend. The range here is huge (1.24 - 1..04). The EUR/USD pair is currently at 1.12. I have a medium term target at the low of the range at 1.04 (which is the lower blue dotted line). A decided break through the 1.04 level would be significantly negative for the Euro. With Italy, France, Germany, and Spain all under severe economic pressure and general decline compiled with an extremely negative demographic make-up, I don’t believe the price has discovered the true realities facing Europe. These fundamental factors compounded by really stupid (and when I say stupid, I mean like Dumb and Dumber kind of stupid) monetary policy, I have a high degree of confidence that a long-term target price of zero may be too conservative (kidding, kind of).

Sincerely,

P. Franklin, Jr., CEO

All opinions and estimates included in this communication constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. This information is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions. Any forward looking statements are just opinions – not a statement of fact.

Investing may involve risk including loss of principal. Investment returns, particularly over shorter time periods are highly dependent on trends in the various investment markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.